TLDR

Gas fees feel random because users see only the final number, not the context behind it. In reality, fees follow clear patterns driven by demand and timing. Wallets can make gas predictable by explaining what’s happening and helping users choose intent instead of guessing prices.

Why gas fees feel random

For most users, gas fees show up as a surprise. You tap Send, and a number appears. Yesterday it was low. Today it’s much higher. From the outside, it feels arbitrary.

In reality, fees can change 2–5× within the same hour during periods of high activity. Without context, this looks like chaos. With context, it’s simply competition.

Blockchains have limited space per block. When activity spikes, thousands of transactions compete for that same space at once. The more urgent the competition, the higher the price to get included.

Nothing here is random. It’s just invisible to the user.

The real problem is not fees, but opacity

Most wallets expose the outcome but hide the reason.

Users don’t see:

• how busy the network is

• how many others are sending transactions

• whether waiting would help

• what “fast” or “slow” actually means

Instead, they see a number and are expected to trust it.

That gap between system logic and user understanding is where frustration comes from.

Why “slow / normal / fast” isn’t enough

Many wallets offer three options. But those labels mean very different things in practice.

In real terms, they can represent something like:

• ~30 seconds

• 2–3 minutes

• 10+ minutes

Without explaining that difference, users are forced to guess. And when the fee changes after confirmation, trust erodes even further.

The issue isn’t the estimate being imperfect. It’s that expectations were never set.

Gas estimation is hard, but not unpredictable

Yes, the mempool changes constantly. But wallets already have access to useful signals:

• recent block history

• current congestion

• typical daily and hourly patterns

• the urgency of the transaction type

For example, after a sudden spike, network activity often drops within 20–60 minutes. Waiting a short time can noticeably reduce fees, without changing anything else.

The data exists. The problem is how it’s communicated.

How wallets can make gas fees feel predictable

Explain time, not just price

Users understand minutes better than numbers. “Likely to confirm in about 2 minutes” is more meaningful than a fee alone.

Show ranges, not a single value

A fee range sets realistic expectations. Landing inside that range feels reliable, not surprising.

Add simple context cues

Short hints like “network is busy right now” or “activity is lower than usual” instantly explain why fees look the way they do.

Let users choose intent

Users know whether something is urgent or not. Wallets should translate that intent into the right parameters automatically.

Suggest waiting when it helps

Sometimes the best action is doing nothing. Saying that builds trust.

Predictable does not mean cheap

The goal is not to promise the lowest fee every time. The goal is to remove anxiety.

When users understand why they’re paying and what they get in return, fees stop feeling like a penalty and start feeling like a trade-off.

Knowing whether something will confirm in seconds or minutes is often more important than saving a small amount.

The bigger picture

Gas fees are one of the first moments where users encounter real blockchain economics. That moment should educate, not confuse.

Wallets sit between complex infrastructure and human decision-making. Turning gas fees from a mystery into a guided choice is one of the most impactful UX improvements a wallet can make.

Order doesn’t require hiding complexity.
It requires explaining it at the right level.