Bitcoin has surged past $104,000, inching closer to its January peak of $108,786, buoyed by renewed optimism surrounding international trade developments. The digital currency has gained over 10% in the last week, with current momentum driven by encouraging signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations.

On May 11, the White House announced “substantial progress” in talks with China, although no formal agreement has been reached. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer emphasized ongoing positive dialogue but stopped short of confirming a finalized deal. Further details are expected in a briefing scheduled for May 12, which could influence Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.

This follows an earlier market uplift sparked by President Trump’s remarks about a tentative U.S.-U.K. trade deal, suggesting a broader easing of trade tensions. Previously, market volatility driven by tariffs had led to sharp selloffs across crypto markets.

Bitcoin’s recent rally is underpinned by strong institutional interest. Over the past month, more than $1.7 billion flowed into Bitcoin spot ETFs, reversing the outflows seen during heightened trade tensions. Additionally, exchange balances have dropped to their lowest levels since 2018, signaling continued accumulation.

Strategic holders like Strategy, with 555,000 BTC considered illiquid, are contributing to a tightening supply, with analysts calling Bitcoin’s current state deflationary. According to CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju, this scarcity effect is reinforcing price strength.

While uncertainty around trade outcomes remains, the crypto market is showing signs of resilience. Continued institutional inflows and improved macro signals could propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.